Welcome to Our Blog.
“People have different impressions of themselves, and where reality lies is somewhere in between.”
— Bill Gross
Economic Warfare
Economic Warfare - Prospering Under the Threat to Sovereignty
In these unpredictable times, having some level of certainty is like finding a safe harbor in a storm. It helps us make more informed and confident decisions.
Humanity, Our Collective, and Investor Opportunities
Loss aversion and other emotions drive behavior and a sound intellectual framework for decision making will help us make better decisions.
Invasion Contagian
There have been many bumps in the road to the present and there will be many others in the years to come. Over the past 42 years, investors in a basket of the world’s most watched businesses have seen positive rates of return 32 times.
Sophistication Made Simple
Fans of any challenging pursuit appreciate reducing the complexities down to the simple and obvious. Warren Buffett, Munger’s business partner, is known for distilling financial complexity into down to earth simplicity. Buffett is often quoted as saying, “Investing is simple, but not easy”.
Are We There Yet?
Adventures of the Intrepid Investor
After a roaring start to 2018, equity markets are reminding investors that price swings are an inherent part of investing. There are those who are surprised by the spectacle of falling prices and stop in their tracks, looking up together to see if the sky is falling. Some will become active participants offering to do something foolish, selling out of fear when business fundamentals are improving and economies around the world are growing and gaining in strength.
Back to School Checklist
Logging flights as a student pilot taught me the importance of following a checklist. When everything is going as expected, its easy to become complacent and to overlook something important. Confirming there is adequate fuel for the flight and the weight of the load comes to mind. Financial management is similar – after 33 years of practice its easy to get complacent, especially when things have been going well.
Interest Rates Lower
Than the Belly of a Snake
Low interest rates are the spawning ground for a number of different economic shifts and upheavals. The more obvious examples are the impact on savers, largely those pensioners who may have been relying on rates in the mid single digits or higher.
Price vs. Value
Understanding the difference between price versus value can result in social and economic outcomes that are remarkably different than those experienced by a cynic. A cynic is more likely to be inclined toward a world view that the system of capital markets is rigged, lacking value, and the only way to win is to game it – to speculate. Distinguishing the difference between price versus value is the very nature of intelligent investing and by extension, a conduit toward a higher social purpose.
Benefits of Bad Behavior: Confirmation Bias
You may know someone who would rather not think about anything that upsets their impression of who they are. Who am I kidding, it happens to all of us at one time or another! Speaking for myself, I have a reputation to uphold and I don’t want to look dumb, weak, or to lose face. I don’t want to behave in a way that is inconsistent with the way I see myself. My opinion of my own character depends entirely on my judgement of my past conduct.