Economic Warfare
Economic Warfare - Prospering Under the Threat to Sovereignty
Hello everyone,
I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to share some thoughts and insights that have been on my mind lately. Let's dive in!
Emotions and Reason
"You're neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You're right because your facts are right, and your reasoning is right - that's the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don't have to worry about anybody else." — Warren Buffett
Being right and the approval of others feels good, and while our feelings are valid, it's also a useful reminder that we need to balance our feelings with rational thinking.
Politics, Economy, and Stock Market Returns
The way politics and the economy intertwine can really shake up the stock market. By understanding these three things independently and how they are connected, we can better navigate the financial ups and downs.
Predictability and Certainty
In these unpredictable times, having some level of certainty is like finding a safe harbor in a storm. It helps us make more informed and confident decisions. Let’s consider what we know.
Herd Mentality and Group Think
Sticking together has its perks, more on that below, and we need to be cautious of herd mentality and the group think that often comes with it. Sometimes, we end up believing repeated lies just because everyone else does. Remember the story of the emperor's new clothes?
We don’t need to go off the cliff together, no offense intended to the lemmings – there are sharks in the water!
We need to use critical thinking skills and second-level thinking, otherwise we risk perpetuating the same mistakes that created the crisis of confidence in the first place.
Modern Media and Algorithms
Today's media and the algorithms behind them expose us to confirmation bias in ways we couldn't have imagined before. It's worth pondering if the creators of these algorithms fully grasp their impact. Designed to hold our attention, the outcome reminds me of the saying, “With an open mind, it's amazing how much junk people will put in there!”
Emotions and Reactions
Our emotions—like the sense of loss, national pride, loyalty, and a sense of fairness—drive our reactions, which can range from anger to fear. It's important to ask ourselves if the means we use to solve a problem justify the end. After all, two wrongs don't make a right. The high road is often the road less traveled and the view is much better from there. This is about doing the right thing because its the right thing to do, and not about virtue signaling, or the unbridled greed of a capitalist wannabe. Capitalism is good if it is used for the right purpose. Doing well by doing well by others is a good start, and it is sustainable. We also need to be thinking about the sustainability of our natural environment alongside how we treat each other. Developing awareness is what happens when we put the phone down.
Situational Leadership
In times of crisis, situational leadership is key. Some reactions, like throwing wild punches, reveal weaknesses that calmer minds will exploit. In other situations, a bully may only respond to another bully. Adaptability is a useful skill, and so is the diversification of styles and abilities for dealing with various threats. We have lots of great human role models and we can also learn something from the behavior of an octopus, a chameleon, an Orca, Great White, or Tigers.
Managing Money
When it comes to managing money, staying logical and indifferent is crucial. We want to practice a form of agnosticism around money. Knee-jerk egoic reactions won't help. Remember, crisis equals opportunity. Calmer heads will prevail.
The Urge to Act
It's natural to want to do something in response to a crisis, but sometimes the best action is choosing to do nothing. Many of us find it hard to stay calm and still, preferring agitation over silence.
Decision-Making
We aim to make decisions based on certainty and high-probability events, rather than taking a gamble. It's all about focusing on the end game and planning accordingly. We ought to go where the puck is going, and that still makes sense, whether you’re a Wayne Gretzky fan or not.
Assessing Our Situation
We start with what we know and assess our individual circumstances:
Where are we?
What are the threats?
How can we be hurt?
Then, we consider potential changes and opportunities:
What are the alternatives?
What could be the unintended consequences?
Gratitude and Unity
Gratitude, solidarity, unity, diversification, and the strength of the collective are essential. We are far more than dollars and cents. We are the awareness and ingenuity that have raised the standard of living and the quality of life for humans all over the planet. We are the logic that realizes sharing benefits everyone. Thoughts become things, and our ability to collaborate has been the greatest contributor to our success as a species.
On a personal note, no number of tariffs or military might can break down the indefatigable human spirit. We are the inextinguishable light that shines through the dust of battle. We are the shepherds of the environment we live in. We are co-creators in the life we want to live, and we are God’s direct way of experiencing all that is created.
We will not disappoint, and we will rise to the occasion and prevail over the challenges and circumstances we face, as we always have. It is in our nature to thrive and survive. Challenges make us stronger, and we need a healthy planet to remain healthy. We will do what we must to ensure our survival and prosperity.
Thank you for being a valued client. I hope these thoughts provide you with some insights and inspiration. If you have any questions or need further assistance, please do not hesitate to reach out.
All my very best,
David Atwood
Talisman Investment Planning