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In order to be successful in any
endeavor,it's a practical idea to identify a successful role model,
study that person's "recipe", and then implement their approach
diligently. That course of action works over a wide range of disciplines,
whether it's athletics, professional occupation or personal life.
It simply makes sense that if you want to be good at anything,
practice what you can learn from a good role model. The same holds
true for investors.
In the world of Investing, few
can match the success of Mr. Warren Buffett. He has compounded
an original investment of around $100,000 to more than US$30 Billion
dollars today. Shares in his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.,
have compounded at an average annual rate of 23% per year for
the last 30 years. Dubbed the "World's Greatest Investor,"
Mr. Buffett would insist that his
success is easy enough to duplicate. Mr. Buffett's recipe is based
on a business owner-like focus. He considers business owners to
be the most capable investors because they are making capital
allocation decisions on a daily basis. Although Mr. Buffett is
very modest in estimating his own abilities, his recipe really
is quite simple. It goes like this.
Completely Understand: To
become an owner of a business we don't understand is tantamount
to speculating because a successful outcome will depend on chance.
We consider a business as though we are buying the entire operation
and we look at the business independently of the price. We want
to allocate capital sparingly, as though there are only a limited
number of opportunities to choose from in our lifetime. It's okay
to miss 100% of the shots we don't take because we are extremely
risk adverse and prefer to take only the perfect opportunities.
We are rewarded with a stable of excellent businesses that gush
earnings like Old Faithful, the geyser, time and time again. This
allows us to sleep at night.
Demonstrated History of Shareholder
Earnings: The previous earnings history tells us how much
money we could have disgorged from the business had we owned it
in the past. It's the free cash flow of the business that we are
purchasing when we buy the stock. We favor the certainty of reliable
income streams over the speculation of short-term price movement.
We derive a greater pleasure from owning a business with a history
of steadily increasing earnings. Start-up operations have no track
record, so, we would be uncomfortable as owners. We like a business
that can retain and compound earnings into the indefinite future.
Where appropriate, we like retained earnings to be used for retiring
shares, adding value for the remaining shareholders.
Part of a Long Term Growth Industry:
In a rising tide even the leaky boats will come up together. Over
time, the ebbs and flows of money in and out of our businesses
will float the share prices, based on the expectation of future
profits. Projections of long term earnings growth (five years
or more) are more credible when the business is part of a reliable
trend indicating a rising tide.
Run by Honest and Competent
People: A business is only as good as the people running it.
We like the assurance that comes from having some of the greatest
business minds in the world running our companies. We don't expect
to be telling the batter how to stand while he or she is in the
batter's box.
Strong Franchise Appeal:
A commodity based business is easily recognized by its reinvention
dependency cycle. Since cost is the only determining factor in
the purchase of a commodity, efforts are constantly underway to
reduce the cost of production allowing prices to be discounted
and market share to be won. This cycle of reinvention is expensive.
Typically the competition is undergoing the same transformations,
leap frogging each other, always at the expense of profits. As
an alternative, we favor businesses with strong curb appeal or
brand name recognition. The attraction is the added value allowing
the franchise to charge a premium for its products or services.
Premiums go right into profits, in direct contrast to the commodities
based business where discount pricing and the cost of reinvention
cut into profits. Barriers to entry are like a moat around the
business and, through industry dominance, they are able to achieve
price flexibility. When it comes to investing, we employ the strategy
of the biblical David and the strength of Goliath.
Buy Below Intrinsic Value:
A margin of safety against adverse price fluctuations is built
in when we buy our businesses at a discount to their true value.
Benjamin Graham established the objective discipline of value
investing. Graham was a mentor to Buffett, first as a teacher
then as an employer. Graham's recipe calls for value to be established
based on the "here and now". Buffett reasoned that the future
earnings were the object of desire, so value should be determined
by the discounted value of the future earnings.
Long Term Ownership: Compounding
is the essence of Wealth Creation. The component drivers of compounding
are the 3T's; Time, Taxes and Total Rate of Return. Time is the
principle agent, or the engine of growth, and its contribution
increases exponentially with each incremental unit of time. The
longer we own our businesses without selling, the longer capital
gains taxes are deferred. The longer taxes are deferred, the longer
the compounding base remains intact.
Preservation of investment capital
is also why so many successful business owners are multi-generational.
It's quite common for business owners to remain focused on their
business and never even think about selling. If we want the kind
of wealth that is attributed to the ownership of an excellent
business, we must conduct ourselves accordingly. Buffett's favorite
holding period is infinity.
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